前期電子報
   

近日來,新聞不斷的出現全球景氣低迷的消息,許多國家紛紛提出拯救企業與促進消費的各種方案,民眾無法不擔憂未來,是不是就耐心等待這一波過去呢?! 

在此摘錄一篇生命教育網站的故事,期待您利用這個『空前的時機』,不論您目前的處境如何,找出『您的斧頭』,或許您跟我一樣,已經有一段時間忘了那把不知放在那裡的斧頭,或許您從未真正認識您有一把斧頭,積極找出來。

找到時,可能你會有些吃驚,有些質疑這把斧頭到底還管用嗎?『磨亮您的斧頭』,在您的現實環境中,發揮想像力應用可得的資源,不要延遲、不要等待,動手磨亮您的斧頭。隨時準備好去砍伐下一個大樹的機會。 
 

 

接著是一篇,高德拉特博士最近的談話,對於當前經濟危機的看法,希望您慢慢的閱讀,能深刻的體會一下,對您而言,此刻是不是一個可以對自己實力確實做個總體檢的時機呢?您的系統中,是否有如他所說的運作上的核心問題呢?想一想,當外在經濟環境不佳時,該核心問題是不是更顯刺眼呢?一句話是這麼說的『危機就是起死回生的契機』,相信嗎?!如果以系統的因果邏輯來推論,其中自有道理可循,而此時就是那個關鍵時刻。   共勉之。 

摘錄自生命教育學習網(轉載自人間福報),世無難事怕有心(心爾)
http://life.edu.tw/data/plan/091/H51500-0000098/index.html

 

山裡住著一位以砍柴為生的樵夫,在他努力辛苦的建造下,終於完成了一間可以遮風擋雨的房子。有一天,他挑著砍好的木柴到城裡交貨,黃昏回家時,卻發現他的房子突然起火燃燒了。左鄰右舍都前來幫忙救火,但是因為風勢過於強大,以致沒有辦法將火勢撲滅,一群人只能靜待一旁,眼睜睜地看著熾烈的火焰吞噬了整棟木屋。

當大火被撲滅的時候,只見樵夫手裡拿著一根棍子,匆忙的跑進倒塌的屋裡不斷地翻找著,圍觀的鄰居以為他在找尋藏在屋裡的珍貴寶物,為一探究竟,大夥兒也都好奇的在一旁看著等著。

一會兒之後,樵夫在坍塌的房裡興奮的叫著:「我找到了!我找到了!」鄰居紛紛趨前探視,才發現樵夫手裡捧著的是一片斧刀,根本不是什麼值錢的寶物。樵夫興奮的將木棍嵌進斧刀裡,充滿自信的說:「只要有這柄斧頭,我就可以再建造一個更堅固耐用的家。」

「失敗者常把機會當成困難,成功者常把困難當成機會。」每個人的一生,都要有一個願景,雖然完成目標的過程中,會有種種的挫折與考驗,但是只要我們能抱持堅定信念、努力不輟,就不會因困難而輕言放棄自己的希望。

俗云:「成功的人不是從未曾被擊倒過的人,而是在被擊倒之後,還能積極地往成功之路不斷邁進。」所以,不要問明天會有怎樣的變化,而是要問,你希望有怎樣的明天。

 

『從危機到基業長青』 
 


對於當今的經濟處境…來自高德拉特博士的一段分享與鼓勵  (2008年11月)

許多業界的朋友問我,對於眼下的財務危機轉變成經濟危機(finance crisis turns into economic crisis),有什麼看法?

我的回答是,我相信真正的問題在於,企業未能內化(internalize)他們該採取的適當行動,以對峙當前的情勢。確實我看到了縮減費用、凍結投資、有些因害怕銷售將會降下而開始裁員,即使他們的銷售尚未降低。我對於現況的意見是,如果企業想要渡過這段時期,並且結果比進入時更加強壯,而不受損於惡質後果的話,將此刻的機會,即是此時事實上必須採取某種行動的需求,轉變成深謀遠慮的行動(prudent actions),就是一種建造的行動,如此一來,我認為企業會變得更好更加穩壯。

第一件得瞭解的事情是,如果實行正確的行動,需要用多少時間去改善大型的企業營運?不知怎樣發生的,我們將持續改善概念誤解成,一種需要花很多年才能見到真正成效的工作,事實並非如此。假如採取正確的行動,用於從營運釋出大量現金的時間,並不是好幾年,甚至不是好幾個月,而在大多數的情況是幾週的時間。這些行動不會使未來成效有所退縮或有所妥協,而是去建造未來。我認為我能以許多案例來證實,但是更重要的是以完善的邏輯來佐證,並且提出什麼是應該採取的行動,大大超越任何縮減費用的方式,故能釋出現金以利營運,進以建造未來成長。的確得花一些時間來審慎地釐清與證實細節,但相較於可得的成效,這又算什麼呢?!

更需一提的是,將改善的要求強加於企業營運,會造成壓力、緊張、傷害人際關係,而這些往往是感官上的印象觀點。如果改善作法具有優質性能,能在幾週內對現金產生有意義的影響,這些相同的作法,亦能大幅提昇人際關係,不會製造抗拒,而是恰恰相反。然而,實際重點在於如實行這些作法而釋出大量現金,相較於縮減人力(聽說已有公司裁員20%),及其他的方式更有效果的話,如果實行這些作法的話,必須瞭解此時危機所傳達的真正訊息,必須十分慎重地看待。

為求進步、為求穩健,企業投入大量的資源,當市場情況發生變化,看看有些企業是多麼擔憂他們的未來,這表示縱使這些企業投入大量資源去建設實力,但並未成功,即是並未成功改善實力,以致於當外界產生變化時,即使經濟危機出現時,不會對他們產生壓倒性的效應。

我想要提出的是,如採取正確的行動去釋出現金,這樣的舉動能延伸為整體企業的防護作用,以對抗未來的雷同危機。然後我認為應該談談一個沒人提出的事,就是管理與帶動企業運作的核心問題,我看到的問題是,如何達成多管理層次間的有效溝通,如何跨越局部管理的界線而得有效的協力效果,只要我們還沒找到真實的答案,我們就無法暢行無阻地將企業提升至一種可觀的境界。我要提出的是,能釋出大量現金及防護企業對抗危機的作法,這個相同的作法即是一個平台,給予協力與溝通問題一套穩健的解答,能確實改造企業。

接著我們來談一件實際事情,企業很成功、協力與溝通問題有效處理,這樣還不夠,我們還得回答對我有什麼益處,對每一位企業中的員工有什麼益處?答案並不在於財務,而是我們如何提供給企業員工一種充實生活的環境(how can we provide the people inside the organization, can live a full life?),如有這樣的優質環境,能孕育員工並促其全然展現才能,如此一來,企業自然能達基業長青(ever flourishing company)。

我有信心,自1983年『目標』出版後至今約二十五年來,從改善生產管理到實現企業之可行願景,利用相同的管理原理、相同的邏輯思維(普通常識),實踐一項又一項改善方案的心力歷程,讓我確信在您尋找解答之際,TOC定能讓您信心倍增、勇往直前、美夢成真。

 

2008 TOCICO會議見聞 
 

今年TOCICO會議(第六屆)在美國拉斯維加斯(Las Vegas)舉辦,十一月一至四日,共約有300多人來自全球五大洲許多國家,中華地區則有來自兩岸三地的顧問與學術界人士。(註:期待明年能有更多的人從中華地區一起參加盛會,請開始規劃,時間應該跟今年相同,聽說可能地點是美國或日本,有進一步消息會盡早公佈,TOCICO網址www.tocioc.org)。

高德拉特博士最令人注目的近況該是他的新書『The Choice』,他建議大家最少要讀五次方能充分理解,據他所述撰寫這本書並不容易,多次反覆修改重寫。我認為這本書以TOC之最高雙贏信念為基準展開,闡述他對於HOW TO CAUSE CHANGE?部分的深刻體會。由於他常說身為一位科學家,尤其是一位物理學博士,最有興趣的事,在於發掘現象中的核心問題,與其背後的因果邏輯及代表的道理,所以那四本二十幾年來始終暢銷的商業小說,所描述的情境就在於WHAT TO CHANGE?和WHAT TO CHANGE TO?這兩部分的範疇。

HOW TO CAUSE THE CHANGE? 的目標設在百年後組織依然蓬勃發展的角度來談,如分三大階段來看,第一是『面對Change』,第二是『Change就位』,第三是『Change內化』,即是他所提過之『跨越舒適區(comfort zone)』,『整合直覺,感覺與邏輯(intuition, feeling and logics)』,與『樹立節奏與文化(clock and culture)』。這三個階段是必要條件的結構,而非凡的目標是『基業長青(ever flourishing)』的企業,其營運特質是『和諧(harmony)』。

在本次會議中的個案項目改善報告,一個接一個的驗證了成功的TOC改善項目(達到或超越預期的績效指標,客戶對顧問與TOC方案除感謝之外並具有信心,而在該企業中繼續展開後續的改善項目),自然產生企業管理層持續改進的動機,即是他們對於在TOC運作機制的穩定性具有信心,而能將注意力投入於更進一步改善系統限制的工作,而且現在是一種團隊真正一起努力的信念。

聽完簡報並跟與會人員互動瞭解後,我受到TOC顧問及TOC經理人 [我稱企業中使用TOC管理方式的經理人] 為了達成雙贏,經過不少上上下下考驗與挑戰,還是堅持不妥協的信念所感動與鼓舞。他們的共同之處在於都是使用TOC的基本哲理與系統步驟去實施項目,卻加入個別特殊的理想性、使命感與自省力,帶領客戶建立信心,看到TOC的價值與貢獻。

特別要提的個案報告是來是香港Henry Soo團隊,在場的聽眾包括了多位Goldratt Schools的老師們,包括我自己在內,我們一致的評論是『The job was well done』,我們感到欣慰的是AEP能有如此優秀的後續成果。我相信,還有許多的TOC顧問或是經理人(無論是不是之前的AEP學員)都有值得分享的成果或心力路程,多麼希望您們能跨出舒適區,多多參與TOC相關的研討會或撰寫文章等等。我們將於明年二月底舉辦大中華地區TOC限制管理研討會,期待您們的積極參與。(活動詳情請密切注意www.toc-cga.org)

TOCICO會議的第一二天照慣例由高博士傳達TOC知能及展望,接著是兩天的知識分享與案例報告,還有準備認證考試的說明會。在此摘錄會議相關議程以供參考,如對內容有興趣者,可洽2008TOCICO會議DVD,請見 http://www.toc-goldratt.com/store/product.php?productid=111118&cat=0&page=1

今年大會標題是:『Enduring Success』。


Nov-1~2-2008
Dr. Eli Goldratt: Standing on the Shoulders of Giants (to be published in Japan) Production concepts versus production applications)


感謝Daniel Wang提供以下的筆記:

1. 

Challenging the perception that major improvement of a large and complex entity takes years. Demonstrating that if the improvement process is guided by common-sense approach of TOC it only takes months, even weeks.
 

2.

Proving that the newly realized speed of improvement generates immediate cash (and cost reduction) more that any other realistic alternative.
 

3. 

Using the above realization to highlight that it provides a practical way the break the conflict that so many companies are currently facing. The conflict of cutting back to immediately improve cash and profitability verses continuing to invest in ensuring the long term prosperity of company.
 

4.  How is it possible to improve in such remarkable speeds? The concepts were laid out by Henry Ford. And the entire foundation was created by the greatest practical visionary of industry Tahichi Ohno . An in-depth analysis of his work reveals the answer – The straight forward, sample mechanisms that bring the desired improvements in an astonishing speed. It is just common sense, but unfortunately common sense is not common.
 
5.  What about the impact of such a drastic change on WA(和) ? Now, that we clearly understand the way that Ohno-san paved, we realize how come we witness an even more startling impact on WA. A typical letter from a user of TOC: “Of course I am surprised and happy with the dramatic profit increase in such a short time. But far more important for me is people’s personal and professional growth. Widely spreading teamwork, motivation increasing across the company: “I have always wanted our company to be like this !”
 
6.  Companies invest a lot in their future. Still the current crisis revealed that in spite of all those investments most companies are exposed. Is it possible to immunize a company against unforeseeable shake-ups in global economy? Yes, provided that the company addresses the more global picture.
 
7.  An in depth analysis of the major movements in global economy, putting into perspective the current crisis.
 
8.  For many companies the bad time started a long time ago. The reason is the shrinking life time of so many products (the time from introducing a new product a new product until it is practically replaced by a better version). A clear explanation provided of the intensified negative impact and the extent that most companies are not effectively addressing it.
 
9.  Ohno-san wrote : “All we are doing is looking at the time line from the moment the customer gives us an order to the point when we collect the cash. And we are reducing that time line ….”

 Goldratt humbly suggests that if we want to immunize our companies against the future, we must expand Ohon’s approach in both directions. We use it beyond the customer (who pays the cash) all the way to the end consumer. And we must start much earlier in the process, we must extend Ohon’s approach to cover the process of getting the orders in the first place.


Nov-3-2008
8:30 am LeTourneau Technologies, Inc. (LTI) is a $1+B USD vertically integrated manufacturing company specializing in large scale and high load bearing equipment for a number of industrial applicaϘǟ ons including oil and gas, steel, mining and forestry products. Dan Eckermann, CEO of LTI, will share his company’s implementaϘǟ on of TOC across its global operaϘǟ ons and describe its role in helping drive 3X growth with 20% Return on Average Capital Employed (RACE). Presented by Dan Eckermann, CEO LeTourneau


9:15 am Delta Air Lines, in 2005, filed for bankruptcy. As part of the bankruptcy plan, engine maintenance was required to reduce cost and inventory while, at the same time, increase productivity. The requirements for survival aligned very well with Theory of Constraints -- more specifically, Critical Chain and Drum-Buffer-Rope. In 2005, Engine Maintenance was unable to meet demand goals. The 2006 goal required an 11% increase in productivity with fewer people. Year over year, inventory, WIP, and cost continued to increase while production became more unpredictable. Engine maintenance saw external customer demand increase to 33% of total volume over a four year period. This is expected to be approximately 47% in 2008. With an increase in customer volume, an increase in complexity is expected. In 2006, Delta Air Lines Technical Operations began an ambitious plan to reduce cycle time of all products 20%, increase production on 20%, while reducing resources.  Presented by Gary Adams General Manager Engine Maintenance Repair Shops Delta Airlines Technical Operations


10:30 am US Marine Corps ,TOC Implementation – 6 Years Later at Maintenance Center Albany

How many times have you addressed and targeted a process to improve only to re-visit that very same process at a later date…almost starting over?  MCA has diligently worked to sustain TOC as the key to our continued successes. Over the past several years we have become more sensitive to listening to our customers, especially concerning cost, schedule, and performance. We responded by first building a foundation upon which to enable improvement, documented procedures & material and financial control. Once that foundation was established, MCA took a big step, implemented and now enjoys the success of TOC and Lean 6S.  As we strive to improve, we have bench marked our organization against others to identify “Best Practices” which enable MCA to better support the war fighter.  Presented by Col Daniel J Gillan, LtCol Donald E Humpert and Steve Foreman


1:00 pm
Track 1: Finance & Measurements
Throughput Accounting-Its Past, Current Role, and Vision for the Future

Throughput Accounting was considered a very vital element of TOC since the famous declaraϘǟ on of Dr. Goldratt : “Cost Accounting is Enemy no.1 of Productivity” made in the early 80s and included in “The Goal”. In the last years where the Viable Vision has been the focus of the Goldratt Group efforts it seems to lose its weight, especially when the role of the capacity constraint has been reduced, due to the strive to continuously grow and not let capacity stand in the way. The presenter believes that T, I and OE should be key terms in the future of TOC, but the concepts and the tools should be adapted to the dynamics of growing organizations. Examples from both manufacturing and service sectors will be used to show the generic nature of the vision of Throughput Accounting in the future. The presentation will touch upon the open nerve of: we all know cost accounting leads to wrong decision and wrong performance measurements, but, how to do it right?” Presented by Eli Schragenheim, Goldratt Schools


Track 2: Case Studies
Smail Auto Center

Smail Collision Center implementation decreased cycle times by over sixty-percent after six months of implementation.  Our work environment has improved dramatically as a result of the elimination of day to day chaos. We now truly understand our capacity and can adapt capacity based on market demand quickly. Thorough up front project planning has reduced our inventory or work in process by seventy-percent.  The Smail Collision Center market has responded positively to the new value we deliver through TOC. Revenues are up twenty percent over prior year. Our peers in the industry are using our data as benchmarks. TOC is helping us to continue to add more value to our services, increased value to the market is resulting in growth in an industry that has more supply than demand.  Presented by John Fagan, Smail Auto Center


Track 3: Consultant Track
Achieving Success with a Mafia Off er-Lessons Learned

Imagine that you have implemented DBR and operations is humming. You have achieved 100% due date performance and you have uncovered a minimum of 50% capacity --- But you can not sell this capacity! This presentation will reveal the typical problems and challenges that arise and the solutions that have worked. These problems and solutions will be revealed along with detailed examples so that the audience can consider their biggest limitation to increasing sales.  Presented by Dr. Lisa Lang, President of the Science of Business


Track 4: Certification Review
Fundamentals Exam review with Richard Reid.


2:00 pm
Track 1: Finance & Measurements
The reality of implementing Throughput Accounting at a $12B high tech company. In this presentation, Mr. Zephro will share his experience implementing Throughput Accounting at Seagate Technology, a $12B leader in the data storage industry. Topics covered will include change management, process and IT infrastructure, decision support templates, decisions for application, and questions and answers gathered from multiple functions over a 4-year period. Presented by Chris Zephro, Director of Finance for Seagate Technology


Track 2: Case Study
“Solution for Profit” High-end Handbag Factory in China

Henry Soo will present one successful Make-To-Order implementation for labour-intensive leather hand-bag factory in China. Presented by Henry Soo, Managing Director of DataDevelop Consulting Ltd. and Director of Operation - ISCEA Hong Kong, China


Track 3: Consultant Track
The Science of Successful TOC Holistic Implementation

The introduction of the strategy and tactics tree and using it in Viable Vision implementations revealed its effectiveness not only in better understanding the required elements of the overall holistic solution, but also in better communicating it to all levels of the organization and in more effectively guiding the implementation towards achieving and sustaining fast and impressive results. In this presentation participants will share this learning, be exposed to the resulting ways of communicating and implementing TOC solutions, and witness the actual results achieved in a viable vision implementation.  Presented by Mickey Granot, CEO Goldratt Group


Track 4: Certification Review
Supply Chain Logistics Exam review with Lisa Ferguson.


3:00 pm
Track 1: Finance & Measurements
Bedford Reinforced Plastics (BRP)

Founded in 1974, Bedford Reinforced Plastics (BRP) is recognized today as a worldwide leader in the manufacture of fi berglass reinforced plastics. By way of an extremely aggressive “Redline” growth campaign, BRP has nearly doubled its production and fabrication capacities over the past two years and has expanded out to nearly 190,000 square feet of manufacturing space. A family-owned business, the company currently employs over 225 of the industry’s most dedicated and knowledgeable professionals sharing in the common goal of reliable delivery of quality products to its customers. Presented by Mike Beaupre, V.P. of Operations and Brad Wise, Controller for BRP with Mark Stanley, President for WHY! Company


Track 2: Case Study
NAT Steel Equipment Private Limited

In this presentation, we will share a story about an unique company where TOC was started in 2002 with good benefits. When TOC was introduced again, coupled with change in measurements, the company increased its profits by nine times. This not only covers the details of TOC implementation, but demonstrates power of leadership and empowerment beyond the conventional implementations. Presented by Zoru Bhathena, Nat Steel; Sanjay Ghoshal, Director for Avenir and Ravi Gilani, Managing Consultant for Goldratt India


Track 3: Consultant Track
The importance of the relationship between client and consultant for a successful holistic TOC implementation

In this presentation, participants will learn: why the traditional consultant-client relationship leads to failed implementations and the necessary changes to the relationship that will avoid the pitfalls and bring the desired results – a company that is achieving and sustaining extraordinary growth in sales and profitability, fueled by the culture and process of ongoing improvement. Participants will learn changes that are required in: the mindset going into the implementation , the roles and responsibilities of the consultants, the executives, and other key people involved in the implementation and skills, communication, and tools to prevent most common pitfalls. This presentation will be valuable for any executive, manager or consultant wishing to significantly improve the success rate of their current and future implementations. Presented by Lisa Scheinkopf, Regional Director USA/Canada, Goldratt Consulting


Track 4: Certification Review
Project Management Exam review with Janice Cerveny.


Nov-4-2008
8:15 am ABB Towards Operational Excellence: Applying TOC in a Global Manufacturing Organization

This presentation will highlight ABB’s internal processes for improving operations using TOC as well as Lean and other improvement methodologies. ABB has been applying TOC for more than 10 years, and in that time, has developed different structures and processes for improving its global operations. Topics covered will include: TOC deployment worldwide, the operations improvement process and consultant organization, TOC and ERP, as well as insights from successes and failures. Presented by Alex D’Anci, Senior Operations Specialist for ABB


9:00 am Fleetguard Filters India, Three years on the path to achieving Viable Vision in four years at Fleetguard Filters Private Limited

FFPL, an auto parts company, is a market leader in the filtration systems in India. FFPL has 5 plants spread across India. Since 2005, the company has deployed Theory of Constraints (TOC) Thinking and Solutions company wide through its engagement with Vector Consulting Group. This presentation will be focused on the implementation and achievements in the distributor to retailer leg and the pull created in the market and institutional segment growth solution- Guarantee for Availability template. Presented by Niranjan Kirloskar, Managing Director for Fleetguard Filters India


10:15 am
Track 1: Case Studies
First Solar

First Solar is a public company headquartered in Tempe, Arizona. It manufactures solar panels using thin fi lm technology. The company has grown significantly in the past seven years, and established itself as the leader in the manufacture of thin film solar modules. To help achieve the company’s goals, top management uses a number of continuous improvement approaches. The Theory of Constraints is a core element in the company’s quest for rapid, sustainable improvement, and is embedded in the corporate culture. The company has gone beyond the use of near every application in the Theory of Constraints toolset to expand, enhance and sustain its application. Presented by Ray Immelman, First Solar


Track 2: Methodology
Focused Methodologies in Telco’s Industry

The presentation presents a new implementation methodology, which is unique to the Telco’s industry. In this industry one can identify Permanent  Bottlenecks that are typical to the whole industry to be exploited and offloaded. We define Strategic and Tactical constraints of the industry, and present a methodology to deal with possible gaps between the two sets of constraints. The methodology enhances Strategy, Operations, Information Systems development, Marketing and Sales management and also enables firms in this sector to attract retail customers more effectively.  Presented by Boaz Ronen, Professor at Tel Aviv University


Track 3: Case Studies
Guaranteed timely delivery-Plastigomez Road to their Viable Vision

Plastigomez is a company that produces plastic sheet, rolls and printed PE packaging products for several industry and commercial clients in Ecuador. The company decided to introduce and implement the Viable Vision Strategy & Tactics as part of their efforts to improve the business results and ensure the sustainability of the business in the long run. A small company faced with a commoditized product and increasing raw material costs. Developing a decisive competitive edge as part of the Viable Vision Implementation has allowed this company to endure the it’s ever changing reality and sustain a signifi cant rate of change together with a rate of progress to profitability.  Presented by Javier Arevalo, Goldratt Consulting Regional Director for Latin America


Track 4: Certification Review
Thinking Process Exam review with Alan Leader.


11:15 am
Track 1: Case Studies
Azul-K SA: Strategy for Enduring Process Improvement- Do not permit that inertia to reenter into the system

The strategy of the Colombian soap producer AZUL K S.A. used during the last 15 years, focused in satisfying the needs of all its external and internal customers through synchronizing the management of all its proper operations including logistics, financial, sales, merchandising, etc., ensuring that all its employees knows and fulfills all the POS (Procedural Standards) required for the correct operation of the system. Presented by Mauricio Vanegas, General Manager for AZUL K S.A.


Track 2: Methodology
TOC in global shipbuilding company - focused on decision supporting methodology for product portfolio strategy

Under uncertainty in shipping market, it is very essential for the shipbuilder to prepare the fast and competitive decision for product portfolio strategy in order to maximize contribution margin by exploiting production facilities and constraints. In this study, we introduce the unique decision supporting methodology for the optimal product portfolio sets based on TOC. This methodology is established by adopting the concept of Drum Buffer Rope (DBR) and Throughput Account (TA) and is designed to control the special constraint-resource planning process and cost accounting process of a global shipbuilding company with over 70 huge vessels and offshore products in a year. In addition, Decision Supporting System (DSS) is implemented by applying this methodology.  Presented by In-Il Kim, Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Equipment


11:15 am (Continued)
Track 3: Case Studies
Managing People and Change

How do you drive the right behaviors amongst executives, management, employees, salespeople and customers? Gerry Kendall and Larry Dyck will share their combined 30+ years of TOC experience in overcoming the biggest human behavior challenges ever. Larry’s focus is on the buyin, communication, data and knowledge development at Décor that drove the company much higher in International industry ranking. Gerry will synthesize his learning in driving and empowering human behavior from worldwide projects and five Viable Visions. All participants will gain valuable ideas to apply in their implementations. Presented by Larry Dyck, President for Décor Cabinets and Gerry Kendall, Principal for TOC International


Track 4: Certification Review
Finance and Measurement Exam review with Charlene Spoede-Budd.


1:00 pm
Track 1: Technology
The Software Ramp

Whether it’s a $5 million manufacturer or a $2 billion worldwide brand, once the scale is bigger than a mom & dad shop, software is a necessary condition to put TOC procedures into practice. Indeed, in the last years designated software has been inseparable of most TOC initiatives. Experience shows that it can rocket or bury them. Attendees will learn about the human and financial aspects, the blind-spots and the pitfalls they may encounter in implementing TOC software. Presented by Amir Schragenheim, CEO; Roei Raz, Operations Manager and Yoel Amir, Product Manager for Inherent Simplicity


Track 2: Thinking Processes
Intermediate Objectives Map: The Cornerstone of the Thinking Process

Direct presentation: The IO Map and the CRT; the IO Map and the Evaporating Cloud. Hands-on exercise in constructing an IO Map. Presented by Bill Dettmer, Senior Partner for Goal Systems International


Track 3: Market Issues
Using TRIZ to break Market Constraints

TOC and TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) form a powerful duo effectively breaking market constraints. The TOC “Breaking External Constraints” process determines quick ways to immediate market differentiation, including the next breakthrough in product or service innovation. TRIZ accelerates the speed to invent through Directed EvolutionTM using rapid analyses and structured innovation processes. Finally, TOC Project Management assures timely product development that will be launched on scope and on time while staying on budget. Presented by Suzan Bergland, President for North America Group AGI and Zion Bar-El, Ideation International Inc.


Track 4: Certification Review

1:00 - 1:15pm Thinking Tools for Education with Ean Khaw.

1:20 - 2:15pm Business Strategy with Alan Barnard.


2:45pm
Track 1: Supply Chain
Actively Synchronized Replenishment

The fundamental material planning core of MRP is more vital today than ever. At the same time it’s critical shortcomings make MRP more dangerous than ever. Actively Synchronized Replenishment is a fundamentally different approach to effective pull-based materials synchronization. Chad Smith, Managing Partner of Constraints Management Group, will share his company’s work creating and implementing this strategy in larger manufacturing enterprises and their respective supply chains. Presented by Chad Smith, Managing Partner for Constraints Management Group (CMG)


Track 2: Thinking Processes
Changing the Status Quo and Execution Follow-up or, “Why Didn’t That !@#$%& Thinking Process Work?”

The psychology behind introducing and sustaining organizational change. Boyd’s OODA Loop and the Constraint Management Model for Strategy Development and Deployment Presented by Bill Dettmer, Senior Partner for Goal Systems International


Track 3: Project Management
Project Management in a Lean world

Lean Six Sigma is not easily implemented “as-is” to projects because of the manufacturing perspective of the techniques. Understanding how LSS translates into a project model and using many techniques from TOC help focus on the right assumptions and interpretations to meet scope, cost and time commitments. Learn ways to drive out waste and address variability, starting with correct project definitions (the value stream map equivalent) and behaviors needed to reduce non-productive activity of resources. Presented by Dee Jacob, Managing Partner for Avraham Y. Goldratt Institute and Bob Mendenhall, Avraham Y. Goldratt Institute


Track 4: Consultant Track

Certification Panel Discussion with Certification Committee Chairs.

 

 

根據TOC原理,管理配銷(續) 

Amir Schragenheim版權所有
本文經作者授權翻譯與刊登(本文接續第34期)
譯自『Managing Distribution According to TOC Principles』


一些實行TOC配銷方案的巧妙之處Some of the finer points in implementing TOC distribution


為各種決策設定良好的準則(Setting good criteria for variety decisions

區別豹類、正常轉速類及大象類的簡單準則:庫存周轉數(inventory turns) – 表示一個特定SKU在某特定庫存地點,相對於這個SKU的庫存水位(inventory level)的售出數量(how many are sold)。然而,只知道售出的數量是不夠的,重要的是知道其財務價值。只知道哪些是豹類,及哪些是大象類對促成任何營運決策沒有幫助。其他準則必須納入考量,知道該產品的財務價值是重要的。

設定這樣準則的目的,顯然與商店老闆需要選擇哪些產品他想要持有與哪些他不要持有有關。這只在各種SKU的數量很大,且在每個庫存地點持有大量SKU的能力有限時,才有意義。僅僅考慮到庫存周轉數並無幫助 – 有些產品在低利潤下售出,即使是豹類產品也無法得到太多淨利,而某個產品每年只能賣出一次(顯然是大象類),但是以投資的角度來看,利潤很高,是很有利的產品。對製造商/配銷商而言,能使用像這樣的衡量,去決定供應鏈裡最好沒有哪些產品,換句話說表示新產品設計是需要的。

在某庫存地點,值得持有某個SKU,決定其數量的最佳衡量指標,就是投資報酬率(Return on Investment,ROI) – 這個SKU能多快帶來利益。由於設立ROI指標是為了協助做決策,在於不同專案/項目間的選擇,在此很適用。配銷商及商店老闆總是受制於有限的現金及/或空間,所以他們得專注於能帶來最大淨利的產品。以TOC財務用詞,投資報酬衡量的方式:在一段時間內由這個SKU所得之有效產出(Throughput)(簡稱T ­– 表示邊際收益(margin)-- 售價減去實際的變動成本),考慮到突然之需求旺季的效應(通常由季節性造成),最佳的觀察期間是一年。

計算投資需考量下列:

  ■ 放在庫存地點的產品庫存涵蓋需求的數量。
  ■ 在途中的庫存也是投資,以防護需求上的波動。
  ■ 幾乎總是有些在途庫存,正如拉式補貨方案,每天為補貨的基準(有時更加頻繁)。

考慮到這些情況,則為得到該SKU的有效產出,預計所需投資的最接近數字是緩衝大小(buffer size)。該SKU的實際變動成本乘以緩衝大小,清楚呈現為製造可供銷售之該SKU,實際所需的投資。

因此,計算公式很簡單 – 計算ROI就是將某個SKU一年的T,除以其TVC乘以(平均)一年的緩衝大小。ROI衡量指標用於區別三種不同類別的SKU:

  (一)明星(star)產品 – 這些代表投資報酬很快能回收 – 這是對營業很有利的產品類 – 而對製造商/配銷商而言,
     這類是他們想要在所有供應地點存放的庫存。
  (二)黑洞(black hole)產品 – 這些產品得花很長時間投資才能回收,對製造商/配銷商而言,這類產品亮起停止
     生產/採購的信號。但不盡然,如有些產品(通常視為策略性的)必須持有,即使他們的利潤相當低,被歸於
     這個類別。
  (三)一般ROI產品 – 這些產品不屬於上述兩者。

顯然在豹類與明星類間有一種關聯性,但絕不是一對一的相關性,清楚地論證於上述的特殊情況。

如何設定不同類別產品界線,依照特別的環境而定,然而一般準則是,落在高的百分之十者為明星類,而在低的百分之二十者為黑洞類。一種處理黑洞類的可能作法是,試著變更某些這類產品的價格標籤 – 如能以較高價格售出,使它們更有利可圖。


設定初始緩衝大小的規則Rules for setting up initial buffer sizes

從推式轉移到拉式配銷方案的第一步是設立工廠倉庫(plant warehouse,PWH),即開始建立庫存,以補足初始的庫存緩衝(initial stock buffer)。初始之庫存緩衝該是多少的決定。似乎是個很複雜的決定 – 不確定性很高,所以擔憂是很自然的事 – 擔心做出錯誤的決定,如遭遇到困難,那麼TOC方法會遭指責,整個轉移到拉式配銷方案可能被視為愚笨的作法。

文字不足以強調精確錯誤(exactly wrong)與大約正確(about right)之間的區別,在Inherent Simplicity公司,我們遇到幾個案例,決定初始緩衝大小的時間超過三個月!這樣的時間長度足以從幾乎是任何初始緩衝大小達到適當的緩衝大小,以外並可獲得某些成果。

由於DBM(dynamic buffer management,動態緩衝管理)的機制是依據實際消耗來調整緩衝大小,所有初始的預估需要在適當緩衝大小的附近就行,甚至這也不見得必要。Inherent Simplicity建議客戶以一個約略估計開始:從源頭到目的地的補貨時間,乘以平均消耗量,再乘以1.5倍。

使用的補貨時間該是:

  ■ 對生產環境而言(工廠倉庫) -- 對某個產品,目前報出的生產前置時間(quoted production lead time)
    (實施TOC之後,在製造環境中,前置時間通常會減半,接著DBM會自動建議降低緩衝大小)。
  ■ 對運輸環境(中央倉庫,區域倉庫及消費點):主要運輸時間加上每週有限的運送次數。

也能使用一個簡單規則去決定,是否一個SKU每年有些季節性的效應:如果回顧去年的消費情形(可能的話也回顧前年的情形),某個月的銷售比月平均銷售多一倍(大約在15-20%間),這個SKU在那個月該被定義為季節性。對於季節性SKU,在旺季月份與平常月份,設定不同的初始緩衝大小(使用上述相同的規則)。計算出不同的緩衝大小,搭配季節性模式 – 其中在季節開始前/結束前,手動設定緩衝大小,或是由軟體自動設定。每月/每週的季節性能以類似的機制得知。


實施TOC配銷模式軟體能有幫助嗎?真的需要嗎?
(Implementing the TOC distribution model – how can software help and is it really needed?)

成功地實行TOC方法來管理配銷環境,兩個主要的條件需要滿足:

  (一)補貨機制(replenishment) – 根據不同地點的消費情況補貨。
  (二)DBM機制 – 動態緩衝管理機制(dynamic buffer management)持續變更緩衝大小,並保持適當的大小
     以支持在消費點目前的消耗情形。

並非只是需要執行這些條件,而是這兩項是最根本的機制 – 它們在任何配銷環境都需要。

即使只考慮到這兩項條件 – 結論必然是,組織沒有軟體無法管理,除非是很小的配銷鏈(任何超過50個緩衝的情境,需要某種軟體來協助管理)。問題是:能使用什麼軟體呢?

首先 – 定義在TOC配銷模式之下,可能包含多少個緩衝:

  ■ 第一個需要釐清的數字是,計畫中要管理之SKU的數量 – 這是公司目前在市面上的SKU數目。
  ■ 第二個數字是,需管理之SKU庫存地點的數量 – 所有的倉庫(區域與工廠倉庫),還有配銷商倉庫及商店,那些
    未來會持有SKU庫存的地點。

預估需要管理的緩衝數量,由上面兩個數字相乘而得。一般而言,關於軟體系統有三種選擇:

  (一)在組織既有的ERP系統中,開發所需的軟體模組。
  (二)在ERP系統之外,開發所需的軟體模組,如excel程式。
  (三)外購TOC之特別軟體系統。

要回答該選擇那一種,只依規模大小而定。對任何需要管理少於500個緩衝的環境,使用內部的軟體系統是一種可能(無論是一種excel程式,或是在目前IT系統上開發程式)。對於其他環境,包含需要管理的緩衝數量超過500 – 建議方案是外購軟體系統,以能將精力全然專注於TOC改善機制與決策。

為何不使用內部開發的軟體,而投入大量資金與精神外購TOC軟體呢?在於:

  (一)品質保證 – 要確保內部開發的軟體模組執行該執行的功能,是相當難處理的事 – 優秀的TOC外加軟體供應商投
     入大多數的時間,在檢查他們設計之模組的正確性。
  (二)可靠性 – 要確保現在及未來,該模組不被『自認為知道』的人變更或增加(引起負面效應)。
  (三)開發 – TOC知識體現處於積極發展的開端,新的見解由TOC顧問與軟體公司正持續開展,TOC軟體公司則需大
     量投資,以將最尖端知識包含於其軟體系統。一套內部開發的系統絕無法跟上這樣的發展速度。
  (四)適當技術 – 有許多精巧技術細節並未記載於市面文獻中,當考慮到公司的特殊需求 – 像是季節性產品,類似產
     品組合或大量緩衝 – 只有TOC軟體公司能整合相關軟體模組去實現這些需求。內部開發的話會花太多時間與精
     力,而還是無法確保相關的需求。
  (五)長前置時間 – 從許多經驗顯示,試圖內部開發TOC軟體模組,時間上幾乎全超過預估的長度。Inherent Simplicity
     公司有很多經驗在於協助公司建構他們自己的內部模組,以實行TOC機制。即使在內部IT的能力不成問題的情況下
     ,相當多的時間消耗在等待將TOC模組整入既有軟體系統,何時能完成有太多的不確定。
  (六)一套excel程式,即使是相當容易使用,建議還是不要選擇這樣的作法:excel的程式是很容易被變動,因此對於堅
     持使用正確的TOC機制並不實際。此外,excel程式很難除錯(debug)。而上述前兩項就是傾向使用excel程式的
     情況。


先導與軟體(Pilot and software

啟動全盤的配銷方案之前,許多公司喜歡試辦先導計畫,來觀察配銷方案是否有意義及其成效。先導計畫並不見得總是可行(例如,在PWH持有幾家商店的庫存,這些商店使用TOC配銷機制,相對於整個供應鏈來看,這樣先導計畫的成效很小。),那怎樣才可行,得回到軟體系統的問題。

當今有少數TOC軟體公司提供先導計畫模式,含相當低的服務價格。由於這不是需要長期投入的方案,而是一種有目的的短期方案的選擇,表示:

  ■ 一種短期方案,如果選擇外加TOC軟體,介面可以手動來管理,因此可立即開始實行,沒什麼困難。
  ■ Excel程式很容易使用 – 由於這是一個很短的方案,並且目標並非是得到完美的機制,而是驗證管理概念(不需要一
    套程序導向的軟體(a process-driven software)),這個選擇實際上比試圖去加寫內部軟體容易執行。


使用TOC機制之配銷方案的成果(Results from using TOC based distribution

根據Inherent Simplicity公司實施TOC拉式配銷方案的經驗,可以有把握地說成果是相當可觀的。如果以本文中描述的準則來實行,特別是設定初始的緩衝大小,從開始實施起,在三個月內就有非常好的結果。以使用Inherent Simplicity的軟體系統(稱為Symphony)來看,平均(是的,平均值)成果是銷售提升40%,結合到各處庫存地點之總體庫存下降50%。將這些結果轉入計算庫存周轉數,以純計算公式來看,正常的庫存週轉數進步了2.8倍。這個結果並沒考量到本文介紹的產品類別規範(明星及黑洞產品)-- 這些規範會開始於第二季生效(明星產品將有更好的可得性表現)。這樣一來將帶來更高的利益。