前期电子报
   

近日来,新闻不断的出现全球景气低迷的消息,许多国家纷纷提出拯救企业与促进消费的各种方案,民众无法不担忧未来,是不是就耐心等待这一波过去呢?! 

在此摘录一篇生命教育网站的故事,期待您利用这个『空前的时机』,不论您目前的处境如何,找出『您的斧头』,或许您跟我一样,已经有一段时间忘了那把不知放在那里的斧头,或许您从未真正认识您有一把斧头,积极找出来。

找到时,可能你会有些吃惊,有些质疑这把斧头到底还管用吗?『磨亮您的斧头』,在您的现实环境中,发挥想象力应用可得的资源,不要延迟、不要等待,动手磨亮您的斧头。随时准备好去砍伐下一个大树的机会。   
  
 

接着是一篇,高德拉特博士最近的谈话,对于当前经济危机的看法,希望您慢慢的阅读,能深刻的体会一下,对您而言,此刻是不是一个可以对自己实力确实做个总体检的时机呢?您的系统中,是否有如他所说的运作上的核心问题呢?想一想,当外在经济环境不佳时,该核心问题是不是更显刺眼呢?一句话是这么说的『危机就是起死回生的契机』,相信吗?!如果以系统的因果逻辑来推论,其中自有道理可循,而此时就是那个关键时刻。   共勉之。 

摘录自生命教育学习网(转载自人间福报),世无难事怕有心(心尔)
http://life.edu.tw/data/plan/091/H51500-0000098/index.html

 

山里住着一位以砍柴为生的樵夫,在他努力辛苦的建造下,终于完成了一间可以遮风挡雨的房子。有一天,他挑着砍好的木柴到城里交货,黄昏回家时,却发现他的房子突然起火燃烧了。左邻右舍都前来帮忙救火,但是因为风势过于强大,以致没有办法将火势扑灭,一群人只能静待一旁,眼睁睁地看着炽烈的火焰吞噬了整栋木屋。

当大火被扑灭的时候,只见樵夫手里拿着一根棍子,匆忙的跑进倒塌的屋里不断地翻找着,围观的邻居以为他在找寻藏在屋里的珍贵宝物,为一探究竟,大伙儿也都好奇的在一旁看着等着。

一会儿之后,樵夫在坍塌的房里兴奋的叫着:「我找到了!我找到了!」邻居纷纷趋前探视,才发现樵夫手里捧着的是一片斧刀,根本不是什么值钱的宝物。樵夫兴奋的将木棍嵌进斧刀里,充满自信的说:「只要有这柄斧头,我就可以再建造一个更坚固耐用的家。」

  「失败者常把机会当成困难,成功者常把困难当成机会。」每个人的一生,都要有一个愿景,虽然完成目标的过程中,会有种种的挫折与考验,但是只要我们能抱持坚定信念、努力不辍,就不会因困难而轻言放弃自己的希望。

  俗云:「成功的人不是从未曾被击倒过的人,而是在被击倒之后,还能积极地往成功之路不断迈进。」所以,不要问明天会有怎样的变化,而是要问,你希望有怎样的明天。

 

『从危机到基业长青』 
 


对于当今的经济处境….来自高德拉特博士的一段分享与鼓励  (2008年11月)

许多业界的朋友问我,对于眼下的财务危机转变成经济危机(finance crisis turns into economic crisis),有什么看法?

我的回答是,我相信真正的问题在于,企业未能内化(internalize)他们该采取的适当行动,以对峙当前的情势。确实我看到了缩减费用、冻结投资、有些因害怕销售将会降下而开始裁员,即使他们的销售尚未降低。我对于现况的意见是,如果企业想要渡过这段时期,并且结果比进入时更加强壮,而不受损于恶质后果的话,将此刻的机会,即是此时事实上必须采取某种行动的需求,转变成深谋远虑的行动(prudent actions),就是一种建造的行动,如此一来,我认为企业会变得更好更加稳壮。

第一件得了解的事情是,如果实行正确的行动,需要用多少时间去改善大型的企业营运?不知怎样发生的,我们将持续改善概念误解成,一种需要花很多年才能见到真正成效的工作,事实并非如此。假如采取正确的行动,用于从营运释出大量现金的时间,并不是好几年,甚至不是好几个月,而在大多数的情况是几周的时间。这些行动不会使未来成效有所退缩或有所妥协,而是去建造未来。我认为我能以许多案例来证实,但是更重要的是以完善的逻辑来左证,并且提出什么是应该采取的行动,大大超越任何缩减费用的方式,故能释出现金以利营运,进以建造未来成长。的确得花一些时间来审慎地厘清与证实细节,但相较于可得的成效,这又算什么呢?!

更需一提的是,将改善的要求强加于企业营运,会造成压力、紧张、伤害人际关系,而这些往往是感官上的印象观点。如果改善作法具有优质性能,能在几周内对现金产生有意义的影响,这些相同的作法,亦能大幅提升人际关系,不会制造抗拒,而是恰恰相反。然而,实际重点在于如实行这些作法而释出大量现金,相较于缩减人力(听说已有公司裁员20%),及其它的方式更有效果的话,如果实行这些作法的话,必须了解此时危机所传达的真正讯息,必须十分慎重地看待。

为求进步、为求稳健,企业投入大量的资源,当市场情况发生变化,看看有些企业是多么担忧他们的未来,这表示纵使这些企业投入大量资源去建设实力,但并未成功,即是并未成功改善实力,以致于当外界产生变化时,即使经济危机出现时,不会对他们产生压倒性的效应。

我想要提出的是,如采取正确的行动去释出现金,这样的举动能延伸为整体企业的防护作用,以对抗未来的雷同危机。然后我认为应该谈谈一个没人提出的事,就是管理与带动企业运作的核心问题,我看到的问题是,如何达成多管理层次间的有效沟通,如何跨越局部管理的界线而得有效的协力效果,只要我们还没找到真实的答案,我们就无法畅行无阻地将企业提升至一种可观的境界。我要提出的是,能释出大量现金及防护企业对抗危机的作法,这个相同的作法即是一个平台,给予协力与沟通问题一套稳健的解答,能确实改造企业。

接着我们来谈一件实际事情,企业很成功、协力与沟通问题有效处理,这样还不够,我们还得回答对我有什么益处,对每一位企业中的员工有什么益处?答案并不在于财务,而是我们如何提供给企业员工一种充实生活的环境(how can we provide the people inside the organization, can live a full life?),如有这样的优质环境,能孕育员工并促其全然展现才能,如此一来,企业自然能达基业长青(ever flourishing company)。

我有信心,自1983年『目标』出版后至今约二十五年来,从改善生产管理到实现企业之可行愿景,利用相同的管理原理、相同的逻辑思维(普通常识),实践一项又一项改善方案的心力历程,让我确信在您寻找解答之际,TOC定能让您信心倍增、勇往直前、美梦成真。

 

2008 TOCICO会议见闻 
 

今年TOCICO会议(第六届)在美国拉斯韦加斯(Las Vegas)举办,十一月一至四日,共约有300多人来自全球五大洲许多国家,中华地区则有来自两岸三地的顾问与学术界人士。(注:期待明年能有更多的人从中华地区一起参加盛会,请开始规划,时间应该跟今年相同,听说可能地点是美国或日本,有进一步消息会尽早公布,TOCICO网址www.tocioc.org)。

高德拉特博士最令人注目的近况该是他的新书『The Choice』,他建议大家最少要读五次方能充分理解,据他所述撰写这本书并不容易,多次反复修改重写。我认为这本书以TOC之最高双赢信念为基准展开,阐述他对于HOW TO CAUSE CHANGE?部分的深刻体会。由于他常说身为一位科学家,尤其是一位物理学博士,最有兴趣的事,在于发掘现象中的核心问题,与其背后的因果逻辑及代表的道理,所以那四本二十几年来始终畅销的商业小说,所描述的情境就在于WHAT TO CHANGE?和WHAT TO CHANGE TO?这两部分的范畴。

HOW TO CAUSE THE CHANGE? 的目标设在百年后组织依然蓬勃发展的角度来谈,如分三大阶段来看,第一是『面对Change』,第二是『Change就位』,第三是『Change内化』,即是他所提过之『跨越舒适区(comfort zone)』,『整合直觉,感觉与逻辑(intuition, feeling and logics)』,与『树立节奏与文化(clock and culture)』。这三个阶段是必要条件的结构,而非凡的目标是『基业长青(ever flourishing)』的企业,其营运特质是『和谐(harmony)』。

在本次会议中的个案项目改善报告,一个接一个的验证了成功的TOC改善项目(达到或超越预期的绩效指标,客户对顾问与TOC方案除感谢之外并具有信心,而在该企业中继续展开后续的改善项目),自然产生企业管理层持续改进的动机,即是他们对于在TOC运作机制的稳定性具有信心,而能将注意力投入于更进一步改善系统限制的工作,而且现在是一种团队真正一起努力的信念。

听完简报并跟与会人员互动了解后,我受到TOC顾问及TOC经理人 [我称企业中使用TOC管理方式的经理人] 为了达成双赢,经过不少上上下下考验与挑战,还是坚持不妥协的信念所感动与鼓舞。他们的共同之处在于都是使用TOC的基本哲理与系统步骤去实施项目,却加入个别特殊的理想性、使命感与自省力,带领客户建立信心,看到TOC的价值与贡献。

特别要提的个案报告是来是香港Henry Soo团队,在场的听众包括了多位Goldratt Schools的老师们,包括我自己在内,我们一致的评论是『The job was well done』,我们感到欣慰的是AEP能有如此优秀的后续成果。我相信,还有许多的TOC顾问或是经理人(无论是不是之前的AEP学员)都有值得分享的成果或心力路程,多么希望您们能跨出舒适区,多多参与TOC相关的研讨会或撰写文章等等。我们将于明年二月底举办大中华地区TOC限制管理研讨会,期待您们的积极参与。(活动详情请密切注意www.toc-cga.org)

TOCICO会议的第一二天照惯例由高博士传达TOC知能及展望,接着是两天的知识分享与案例报告,还有准备认证考试的说明会。在此摘录会议相关议程以供参考,如对内容有兴趣者,可洽2008TOCICO会议DVD,请见 http://www.toc-goldratt.com/store/product.php?productid=111118&cat=0&page=1

今年大会标题是:『Enduring Success』。


Nov-1~2-2008
Dr. Eli Goldratt: Standing on the Shoulders of Giants (to be published in Japan) Production concepts versus production applications)


感谢Daniel Wang提供以下的笔记:

1. 

Challenging the perception that major improvement of a large and complex entity takes years. Demonstrating that if the improvement process is guided by common-sense approach of TOC it only takes months, even weeks.
 

2.

Proving that the newly realized speed of improvement generates immediate cash (and cost reduction) more that any other realistic alternative.
 

3. 

Using the above realization to highlight that it provides a practical way the break the conflict that so many companies are currently facing. The conflict of cutting back to immediately improve cash and profitability verses continuing to invest in ensuring the long term prosperity of company.
 

4.  How is it possible to improve in such remarkable speeds? The concepts were laid out by Henry Ford. And the entire foundation was created by the greatest practical visionary of industry Tahichi Ohno . An in-depth analysis of his work reveals the answer – The straight forward, sample mechanisms that bring the desired improvements in an astonishing speed. It is just common sense, but unfortunately common sense is not common.
 
5.  What about the impact of such a drastic change on WA(和) ? Now, that we clearly understand the way that Ohno-san paved, we realize how come we witness an even more startling impact on WA. A typical letter from a user of TOC: “Of course I am surprised and happy with the dramatic profit increase in such a short time. But far more important for me is people’s personal and professional growth. Widely spreading teamwork, motivation increasing across the company: “I have always wanted our company to be like this !”
 
6.  Companies invest a lot in their future. Still the current crisis revealed that in spite of all those investments most companies are exposed. Is it possible to immunize a company against unforeseeable shake-ups in global economy? Yes, provided that the company addresses the more global picture.
 
7.  An in depth analysis of the major movements in global economy, putting into perspective the current crisis.
 
8.  For many companies the bad time started a long time ago. The reason is the shrinking life time of so many products (the time from introducing a new product a new product until it is practically replaced by a better version). A clear explanation provided of the intensified negative impact and the extent that most companies are not effectively addressing it.
 
9.  Ohno-san wrote : “All we are doing is looking at the time line from the moment the customer gives us an order to the point when we collect the cash. And we are reducing that time line ….”

 Goldratt humbly suggests that if we want to immunize our companies against the future, we must expand Ohon’s approach in both directions. We use it beyond the customer (who pays the cash) all the way to the end consumer. And we must start much earlier in the process, we must extend Ohon’s approach to cover the process of getting the orders in the first place.


Nov-3-2008
8:30 am LeTourneau Technologies, Inc. (LTI) is a $1+B USD vertically integrated manufacturing company specializing in large scale and high load bearing equipment for a number of industrial applicaϘǟ ons including oil and gas, steel, mining and forestry products. Dan Eckermann, CEO of LTI, will share his company’s implementaϘǟ on of TOC across its global operaϘǟ ons and describe its role in helping drive 3X growth with 20% Return on Average Capital Employed (RACE). Presented by Dan Eckermann, CEO LeTourneau


9:15 am Delta Air Lines, in 2005, filed for bankruptcy. As part of the bankruptcy plan, engine maintenance was required to reduce cost and inventory while, at the same time, increase productivity. The requirements for survival aligned very well with Theory of Constraints -- more specifically, Critical Chain and Drum-Buffer-Rope. In 2005, Engine Maintenance was unable to meet demand goals. The 2006 goal required an 11% increase in productivity with fewer people. Year over year, inventory, WIP, and cost continued to increase while production became more unpredictable. Engine maintenance saw external customer demand increase to 33% of total volume over a four year period. This is expected to be approximately 47% in 2008. With an increase in customer volume, an increase in complexity is expected. In 2006, Delta Air Lines Technical Operations began an ambitious plan to reduce cycle time of all products 20%, increase production on 20%, while reducing resources.  Presented by Gary Adams General Manager Engine Maintenance Repair Shops Delta Airlines Technical Operations


10:30 am US Marine Corps ,TOC Implementation – 6 Years Later at Maintenance Center Albany

How many times have you addressed and targeted a process to improve only to re-visit that very same process at a later date…almost starting over?  MCA has diligently worked to sustain TOC as the key to our continued successes. Over the past several years we have become more sensitive to listening to our customers, especially concerning cost, schedule, and performance. We responded by first building a foundation upon which to enable improvement, documented procedures & material and financial control. Once that foundation was established, MCA took a big step, implemented and now enjoys the success of TOC and Lean 6S.  As we strive to improve, we have bench marked our organization against others to identify “Best Practices” which enable MCA to better support the war fighter.  Presented by Col Daniel J Gillan, LtCol Donald E Humpert and Steve Foreman


1:00 pm
Track 1: Finance & Measurements
Throughput Accounting-Its Past, Current Role, and Vision for the Future

Throughput Accounting was considered a very vital element of TOC since the famous declaraϘǟ on of Dr. Goldratt : “Cost Accounting is Enemy no.1 of Productivity” made in the early 80s and included in “The Goal”. In the last years where the Viable Vision has been the focus of the Goldratt Group efforts it seems to lose its weight, especially when the role of the capacity constraint has been reduced, due to the strive to continuously grow and not let capacity stand in the way. The presenter believes that T, I and OE should be key terms in the future of TOC, but the concepts and the tools should be adapted to the dynamics of growing organizations. Examples from both manufacturing and service sectors will be used to show the generic nature of the vision of Throughput Accounting in the future. The presentation will touch upon the open nerve of: we all know cost accounting leads to wrong decision and wrong performance measurements, but, how to do it right?” Presented by Eli Schragenheim, Goldratt Schools


Track 2: Case Studies
Smail Auto Center

Smail Collision Center implementation decreased cycle times by over sixty-percent after six months of implementation.  Our work environment has improved dramatically as a result of the elimination of day to day chaos. We now truly understand our capacity and can adapt capacity based on market demand quickly. Thorough up front project planning has reduced our inventory or work in process by seventy-percent.  The Smail Collision Center market has responded positively to the new value we deliver through TOC. Revenues are up twenty percent over prior year. Our peers in the industry are using our data as benchmarks. TOC is helping us to continue to add more value to our services, increased value to the market is resulting in growth in an industry that has more supply than demand.  Presented by John Fagan, Smail Auto Center


Track 3: Consultant Track
Achieving Success with a Mafia Off er-Lessons Learned

Imagine that you have implemented DBR and operations is humming. You have achieved 100% due date performance and you have uncovered a minimum of 50% capacity --- But you can not sell this capacity! This presentation will reveal the typical problems and challenges that arise and the solutions that have worked. These problems and solutions will be revealed along with detailed examples so that the audience can consider their biggest limitation to increasing sales.  Presented by Dr. Lisa Lang, President of the Science of Business


Track 4: Certification Review
Fundamentals Exam review with Richard Reid.


2:00 pm
Track 1: Finance & Measurements
The reality of implementing Throughput Accounting at a $12B high tech company. In this presentation, Mr. Zephro will share his experience implementing Throughput Accounting at Seagate Technology, a $12B leader in the data storage industry. Topics covered will include change management, process and IT infrastructure, decision support templates, decisions for application, and questions and answers gathered from multiple functions over a 4-year period. Presented by Chris Zephro, Director of Finance for Seagate Technology


Track 2: Case Study
“Solution for Profit” High-end Handbag Factory in China

Henry Soo will present one successful Make-To-Order implementation for labour-intensive leather hand-bag factory in China. Presented by Henry Soo, Managing Director of DataDevelop Consulting Ltd. and Director of Operation - ISCEA Hong Kong, China


Track 3: Consultant Track
The Science of Successful TOC Holistic Implementation

The introduction of the strategy and tactics tree and using it in Viable Vision implementations revealed its effectiveness not only in better understanding the required elements of the overall holistic solution, but also in better communicating it to all levels of the organization and in more effectively guiding the implementation towards achieving and sustaining fast and impressive results. In this presentation participants will share this learning, be exposed to the resulting ways of communicating and implementing TOC solutions, and witness the actual results achieved in a viable vision implementation.  Presented by Mickey Granot, CEO Goldratt Group


Track 4: Certification Review
Supply Chain Logistics Exam review with Lisa Ferguson.


3:00 pm
Track 1: Finance & Measurements
Bedford Reinforced Plastics (BRP)

Founded in 1974, Bedford Reinforced Plastics (BRP) is recognized today as a worldwide leader in the manufacture of fi berglass reinforced plastics. By way of an extremely aggressive “Redline” growth campaign, BRP has nearly doubled its production and fabrication capacities over the past two years and has expanded out to nearly 190,000 square feet of manufacturing space. A family-owned business, the company currently employs over 225 of the industry’s most dedicated and knowledgeable professionals sharing in the common goal of reliable delivery of quality products to its customers. Presented by Mike Beaupre, V.P. of Operations and Brad Wise, Controller for BRP with Mark Stanley, President for WHY! Company


Track 2: Case Study
NAT Steel Equipment Private Limited

In this presentation, we will share a story about an unique company where TOC was started in 2002 with good benefits. When TOC was introduced again, coupled with change in measurements, the company increased its profits by nine times. This not only covers the details of TOC implementation, but demonstrates power of leadership and empowerment beyond the conventional implementations. Presented by Zoru Bhathena, Nat Steel; Sanjay Ghoshal, Director for Avenir and Ravi Gilani, Managing Consultant for Goldratt India


Track 3: Consultant Track
The importance of the relationship between client and consultant for a successful holistic TOC implementation

In this presentation, participants will learn: why the traditional consultant-client relationship leads to failed implementations and the necessary changes to the relationship that will avoid the pitfalls and bring the desired results – a company that is achieving and sustaining extraordinary growth in sales and profitability, fueled by the culture and process of ongoing improvement. Participants will learn changes that are required in: the mindset going into the implementation , the roles and responsibilities of the consultants, the executives, and other key people involved in the implementation and skills, communication, and tools to prevent most common pitfalls. This presentation will be valuable for any executive, manager or consultant wishing to significantly improve the success rate of their current and future implementations. Presented by Lisa Scheinkopf, Regional Director USA/Canada, Goldratt Consulting


Track 4: Certification Review
Project Management Exam review with Janice Cerveny.


Nov-4-2008
8:15 am ABB Towards Operational Excellence: Applying TOC in a Global Manufacturing Organization

This presentation will highlight ABB’s internal processes for improving operations using TOC as well as Lean and other improvement methodologies. ABB has been applying TOC for more than 10 years, and in that time, has developed different structures and processes for improving its global operations. Topics covered will include: TOC deployment worldwide, the operations improvement process and consultant organization, TOC and ERP, as well as insights from successes and failures. Presented by Alex D’Anci, Senior Operations Specialist for ABB


9:00 am Fleetguard Filters India, Three years on the path to achieving Viable Vision in four years at Fleetguard Filters Private Limited

FFPL, an auto parts company, is a market leader in the filtration systems in India. FFPL has 5 plants spread across India. Since 2005, the company has deployed Theory of Constraints (TOC) Thinking and Solutions company wide through its engagement with Vector Consulting Group. This presentation will be focused on the implementation and achievements in the distributor to retailer leg and the pull created in the market and institutional segment growth solution- Guarantee for Availability template. Presented by Niranjan Kirloskar, Managing Director for Fleetguard Filters India


10:15 am
Track 1: Case Studies
First Solar

First Solar is a public company headquartered in Tempe, Arizona. It manufactures solar panels using thin fi lm technology. The company has grown significantly in the past seven years, and established itself as the leader in the manufacture of thin film solar modules. To help achieve the company’s goals, top management uses a number of continuous improvement approaches. The Theory of Constraints is a core element in the company’s quest for rapid, sustainable improvement, and is embedded in the corporate culture. The company has gone beyond the use of near every application in the Theory of Constraints toolset to expand, enhance and sustain its application. Presented by Ray Immelman, First Solar


Track 2: Methodology
Focused Methodologies in Telco’s Industry

The presentation presents a new implementation methodology, which is unique to the Telco’s industry. In this industry one can identify Permanent  Bottlenecks that are typical to the whole industry to be exploited and offloaded. We define Strategic and Tactical constraints of the industry, and present a methodology to deal with possible gaps between the two sets of constraints. The methodology enhances Strategy, Operations, Information Systems development, Marketing and Sales management and also enables firms in this sector to attract retail customers more effectively.  Presented by Boaz Ronen, Professor at Tel Aviv University


Track 3: Case Studies
Guaranteed timely delivery-Plastigomez Road to their Viable Vision

Plastigomez is a company that produces plastic sheet, rolls and printed PE packaging products for several industry and commercial clients in Ecuador. The company decided to introduce and implement the Viable Vision Strategy & Tactics as part of their efforts to improve the business results and ensure the sustainability of the business in the long run. A small company faced with a commoditized product and increasing raw material costs. Developing a decisive competitive edge as part of the Viable Vision Implementation has allowed this company to endure the it’s ever changing reality and sustain a signifi cant rate of change together with a rate of progress to profitability.  Presented by Javier Arevalo, Goldratt Consulting Regional Director for Latin America


Track 4: Certification Review
Thinking Process Exam review with Alan Leader.


11:15 am
Track 1: Case Studies
Azul-K SA: Strategy for Enduring Process Improvement- Do not permit that inertia to reenter into the system

The strategy of the Colombian soap producer AZUL K S.A. used during the last 15 years, focused in satisfying the needs of all its external and internal customers through synchronizing the management of all its proper operations including logistics, financial, sales, merchandising, etc., ensuring that all its employees knows and fulfills all the POS (Procedural Standards) required for the correct operation of the system. Presented by Mauricio Vanegas, General Manager for AZUL K S.A.


Track 2: Methodology
TOC in global shipbuilding company - focused on decision supporting methodology for product portfolio strategy

Under uncertainty in shipping market, it is very essential for the shipbuilder to prepare the fast and competitive decision for product portfolio strategy in order to maximize contribution margin by exploiting production facilities and constraints. In this study, we introduce the unique decision supporting methodology for the optimal product portfolio sets based on TOC. This methodology is established by adopting the concept of Drum Buffer Rope (DBR) and Throughput Account (TA) and is designed to control the special constraint-resource planning process and cost accounting process of a global shipbuilding company with over 70 huge vessels and offshore products in a year. In addition, Decision Supporting System (DSS) is implemented by applying this methodology.  Presented by In-Il Kim, Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Equipment


11:15 am (Continued)
Track 3: Case Studies
Managing People and Change

How do you drive the right behaviors amongst executives, management, employees, salespeople and customers? Gerry Kendall and Larry Dyck will share their combined 30+ years of TOC experience in overcoming the biggest human behavior challenges ever. Larry’s focus is on the buyin, communication, data and knowledge development at Décor that drove the company much higher in International industry ranking. Gerry will synthesize his learning in driving and empowering human behavior from worldwide projects and five Viable Visions. All participants will gain valuable ideas to apply in their implementations. Presented by Larry Dyck, President for Décor Cabinets and Gerry Kendall, Principal for TOC International


Track 4: Certification Review
Finance and Measurement Exam review with Charlene Spoede-Budd.


1:00 pm
Track 1: Technology
The Software Ramp

Whether it’s a $5 million manufacturer or a $2 billion worldwide brand, once the scale is bigger than a mom & dad shop, software is a necessary condition to put TOC procedures into practice. Indeed, in the last years designated software has been inseparable of most TOC initiatives. Experience shows that it can rocket or bury them. Attendees will learn about the human and financial aspects, the blind-spots and the pitfalls they may encounter in implementing TOC software. Presented by Amir Schragenheim, CEO; Roei Raz, Operations Manager and Yoel Amir, Product Manager for Inherent Simplicity


Track 2: Thinking Processes
Intermediate Objectives Map: The Cornerstone of the Thinking Process

Direct presentation: The IO Map and the CRT; the IO Map and the Evaporating Cloud. Hands-on exercise in constructing an IO Map. Presented by Bill Dettmer, Senior Partner for Goal Systems International


Track 3: Market Issues
Using TRIZ to break Market Constraints

TOC and TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) form a powerful duo effectively breaking market constraints. The TOC “Breaking External Constraints” process determines quick ways to immediate market differentiation, including the next breakthrough in product or service innovation. TRIZ accelerates the speed to invent through Directed EvolutionTM using rapid analyses and structured innovation processes. Finally, TOC Project Management assures timely product development that will be launched on scope and on time while staying on budget. Presented by Suzan Bergland, President for North America Group AGI and Zion Bar-El, Ideation International Inc.


Track 4: Certification Review

1:00 - 1:15pm Thinking Tools for Education with Ean Khaw.

1:20 - 2:15pm Business Strategy with Alan Barnard.


2:45pm
Track 1: Supply Chain
Actively Synchronized Replenishment

The fundamental material planning core of MRP is more vital today than ever. At the same time it’s critical shortcomings make MRP more dangerous than ever. Actively Synchronized Replenishment is a fundamentally different approach to effective pull-based materials synchronization. Chad Smith, Managing Partner of Constraints Management Group, will share his company’s work creating and implementing this strategy in larger manufacturing enterprises and their respective supply chains. Presented by Chad Smith, Managing Partner for Constraints Management Group (CMG)


Track 2: Thinking Processes
Changing the Status Quo and Execution Follow-up or, “Why Didn’t That !@#$%& Thinking Process Work?”

The psychology behind introducing and sustaining organizational change. Boyd’s OODA Loop and the Constraint Management Model for Strategy Development and Deployment Presented by Bill Dettmer, Senior Partner for Goal Systems International


Track 3: Project Management
Project Management in a Lean world

Lean Six Sigma is not easily implemented “as-is” to projects because of the manufacturing perspective of the techniques. Understanding how LSS translates into a project model and using many techniques from TOC help focus on the right assumptions and interpretations to meet scope, cost and time commitments. Learn ways to drive out waste and address variability, starting with correct project definitions (the value stream map equivalent) and behaviors needed to reduce non-productive activity of resources. Presented by Dee Jacob, Managing Partner for Avraham Y. Goldratt Institute and Bob Mendenhall, Avraham Y. Goldratt Institute


Track 4: Consultant Track

Certification Panel Discussion with Certification Committee Chairs.

 

 

根据TOC原理,管理配销(续) 

Amir Schragenheim版权所有
本文经作者授权翻译与刊登(本文接续第34期)
译自『Managing Distribution According to TOC Principles』


一些实行TOC配销方案的巧妙之处Some of the finer points in implementing TOC distribution


为各种决策设定良好的准则(Setting good criteria for variety decisions

区别豹类、正常转速类及大象类的简单准则:库存周转数(inventory turns) – 表示一个特定SKU在某特定库存地点,相对于这个SKU的库存水位(inventory level)的售出数量(how many are sold)。然而,只知道售出的数量是不够的,重要的是知道其财务价值。只知道哪些是豹类,及哪些是大象类对促成任何营运决策没有帮助。其它准则必须纳入考虑,知道该产品的财务价值是重要的。

设定这样准则的目的,显然与商店老板需要选择哪些产品他想要持有与哪些他不要持有有关。这只在各种SKU的数量很大,且在每个库存地点持有大量SKU的能力有限时,才有意义。仅仅考虑到库存周转数并无帮助 – 有些产品在低利润下售出,即使是豹类产品也无法得到太多净利,而某个产品每年只能卖出一次(显然是大象类),但是以投资的角度来看,利润很高,是很有利的产品。对制造商/配销商而言,能使用像这样的衡量,去决定供应链里最好没有哪些产品,换句话说表示新产品设计是需要的。

在某库存地点,值得持有某个SKU,决定其数量的最佳衡量指标,就是投资报酬率(Return on Investment,ROI) – 这个SKU能多快带来利益。由于设立ROI指标是为了协助做决策,在于不同项目/项目间的选择,在此很适用。配销商及商店老板总是受制于有限的现金及/或空间,所以他们得专注于能带来最大净利的产品。以TOC财务用词,投资报酬衡量的方式:在一段时间内由这个SKU所得之有效产出(Throughput)(简称T ­– 表示边际收益(margin)-- 售价减去实际的变动成本),考虑到突然之需求旺季的效应(通常由季节性造成),最佳的观察期间是一年。

计算投资需考虑下列:

  ■ 放在库存地点的产品库存涵盖需求的数量。
  ■ 在途中的库存也是投资,以防护需求上的波动。
  ■ 几乎总是有些在途库存,正如拉式补货方案,每天为补货的基准(有时更加频繁)。

考虑到这些情况,则为得到该SKU的有效产出,预计所需投资的最接近数字是缓冲大小(buffer size)。该SKU的实际变动成本乘以缓冲大小,清楚呈现为制造可供销售之该SKU,实际所需的投资。

因此,计算公式很简单 – 计算ROI就是将某个SKU一年的T,除以其TVC乘以(平均)一年的缓冲大小。ROI衡量指标用于区别三种不同类别的SKU:

  (一)明星(star)产品 – 这些代表投资报酬很快能回收 – 这是对营业很有利的产品类 – 而对制造商/配销商而言,
     这类是他们想要在所有供应地点存放的库存。
  (二)黑洞(black hole)产品 – 这些产品得花很长时间投资才能回收,对制造商/配销商而言,这类产品亮起停止
     生产/采购的信号。但不尽然,如有些产品(通常视为策略性的)必须持有,即使他们的利润相当低,被归于
     这个类别。
  (三)一般ROI产品 – 这些产品不属于上述两者。

显然在豹类与明星类间有一种关联性,但绝不是一对一的相关性,清楚地论证于上述的特殊情况。

如何设定不同类别产品界线,依照特别的环境而定,然而一般准则是,落在高的百分之十者为明星类,而在低的百分之二十者为黑洞类。一种处理黑洞类的可能作法是,试着变更某些这类产品的价格卷标 – 如能以较高价格售出,使它们更有利可图。


设定初始缓冲大小的规则Rules for setting up initial buffer sizes

从推式转移到拉式配销方案的第一步是设立工厂仓库(plant warehouse,PWH),即开始建立库存,以补足初始的库存缓冲(initial stock buffer)。初始之库存缓冲该是多少的决定。似乎是个很复杂的决定 – 不确定性很高,所以担忧是很自然的事 – 担心做出错误的决定,如遭遇到困难,那么TOC方法会遭指责,整个转移到拉式配销方案可能被视为愚笨的作法。

文字不足以强调精确错误(exactly wrong)与大约正确(about right)之间的区别,在Inherent Simplicity公司,我们遇到几个案例,决定初始缓冲大小的时间超过三个月!这样的时间长度足以从几乎是任何初始缓冲大小达到适当的缓冲大小,以外并可获得某些成果。

由于DBM(dynamic buffer management,动态缓冲管理)的机制是依据实际消耗来调整缓冲大小,所有初始的预估需要在适当缓冲大小的附近就行,甚至这也不见得必要。Inherent Simplicity建议客户以一个约略估计开始:从源头到目的地的补货时间,乘以平均消耗量,再乘以1.5倍。

使用的补货时间该是:

  ■ 对生产环境而言(工厂仓库) -- 对某个产品,目前报出的生产前置时间(quoted production lead time)
    (实施TOC之后,在制造环境中,前置时间通常会减半,接着DBM会自动建议降低缓冲大小)。
  ■ 对运输环境(中央仓库,区域仓库及消费点):主要运输时间加上每周有限的运送次数。

也能使用一个简单规则去决定,是否一个SKU每年有些季节性的效应:如果回顾去年的消费情形(可能的话也回顾前年的情形),某个月的销售比月平均销售多一倍(大约在15-20%间),这个SKU在那个月该被定义为季节性。对于季节性SKU,在旺季月份与平常月份,设定不同的初始缓冲大小(使用上述相同的规则)。计算出不同的缓冲大小,搭配季节性模式 – 其中在季节开始前/结束前,手动设定缓冲大小,或是由软件自动设定。每月/每周的季节性能以类似的机制得知。


实施TOC配销模式软件能有帮助吗?真的需要吗?(Implementing the TOC distribution model – how can software help and is it really needed?)

成功地实行TOC方法来管理配销环境,两个主要的条件需要满足:

  (一)补货机制(replenishment) – 根据不同地点的消费情况补货。
  (二)DBM机制 – 动态缓冲管理机制(dynamic buffer management)持续变更缓冲大小,并保持适当的大小
     以支持在消费点目前的消耗情形。

并非只是需要执行这些条件,而是这两项是最根本的机制 – 它们在任何配销环境都需要。

即使只考虑到这两项条件 – 结论必然是,组织没有软件无法管理,除非是很小的配销链(任何超过50个缓冲的情境,需要某种软件来协助管理)。问题是:能使用什么软件呢?

首先 – 定义在TOC配销模式之下,可能包含多少个缓冲:

  ■ 第一个需要厘清的数字是,计划中要管理之SKU的数量 – 这是公司目前在市面上的SKU数目。
  ■ 第二个数字是,需管理之SKU库存地点的数量 – 所有的仓库(区域与工厂仓库),还有配销商仓库及商店,那些
    未来会持有SKU库存的地点。

预估需要管理的缓冲数量,由上面两个数字相乘而得。一般而言,关于软件系统有三种选择:

  (一)在组织既有的ERP系统中,开发所需的软件模块。
  (二)在ERP系统之外,开发所需的软件模块,如excel程序。
  (三)外购TOC之特别软件系统。

要回答该选择那一种,只依规模大小而定。对任何需要管理少于500个缓冲的环境,使用内部的软件系统是一种可能(无论是一种excel程序,或是在目前IT系统上开发程序)。对于其它环境,包含需要管理的缓冲数量超过500 – 建议方案是外购软件系统,以能将精力全然专注于TOC改善机制与决策。

为何不使用内部开发的软件,而投入大量资金与精神外购TOC软件呢?在于:

  (一)质量保证 – 要确保内部开发的软件模块执行该执行的功能,是相当难处理的事 – 优秀的TOC外加软件供货商投
     入大多数的时间,在检查他们设计之模块的正确性。
  (二)可靠性 – 要确保现在及未来,该模块不被『自认为知道』的人变更或增加(引起负面效应)。
  (三)开发 – TOC知识体现处于积极发展的开端,新的见解由TOC顾问与软件公司正持续开展,TOC软件公司则需大
     量投资,以将最尖端知识包含于其软件系统。一套内部开发的系统绝无法跟上这样的发展速度。
  (四)适当技术 – 有许多精巧技术细节并未记载于市面文献中,当考虑到公司的特殊需求 – 像是季节性产品,类似产
     品组合或大量缓冲 – 只有TOC软件公司能整合相关软件模块去实现这些需求。内部开发的话会花太多时间与精
     力,而还是无法确保相关的需求。
  (五)长前置时间 – 从许多经验显示,试图内部开发TOC软件模块,时间上几乎全超过预估的长度。Inherent Simplicity
     公司有很多经验在于协助公司建构他们自己的内部模块,以实行TOC机制。即使在内部IT的能力不成问题的情况下
     ,相当多的时间消耗在等待将TOC模块整入既有软件系统,何时能完成有太多的不确定。
  (六)一套excel程序,即使是相当容易使用,建议还是不要选择这样的作法:excel的程序是很容易被变动,因此对于坚
     持使用正确的TOC机制并不实际。此外,excel程序很难除错(debug)。而上述前两项就是倾向使用excel程序的
     情况。


先导与软件(Pilot and software)

启动全盘的配销方案之前,许多公司喜欢试办先导计划,来观察配销方案是否有意义及其成效。先导计划并不见得总是可行(例如,在PWH持有几家商店的库存,这些商店使用TOC配销机制,相对于整个供应链来看,这样先导计划的成效很小。),那怎样才可行,得回到软件系统的问题。

当今有少数TOC软件公司提供先导计划模式,含相当低的服务价格。由于这不是需要长期投入的方案,而是一种有目的的短期方案的选择,表示:

  ■ 一种短期方案,如果选择外加TOC软件,接口可以手动来管理,因此可立即开始实行,没什么困难。
  ■ Excel程序很容易使用 – 由于这是一个很短的方案,并且目标并非是得到完美的机制,而是验证管理概念(不需要一
    套程序导向的软件(a process-driven software)),这个选择实际上比试图去加写内部软件容易执行。


使用TOC机制之配销方案的成果(Results from using TOC based distribution)

根据Inherent Simplicity公司实施TOC拉式配销方案的经验,可以有把握地说成果是相当可观的。如果以本文中描述的准则来实行,特别是设定初始的缓冲大小,从开始实施起,在三个月内就有非常好的结果。以使用Inherent Simplicity的软件系统(称为Symphony)来看,平均(是的,平均值)成果是销售提升40%,结合到各处库存地点之总体库存下降50%。将这些结果转入计算库存周转数,以纯计算公式来看,正常的库存周转数进步了2.8倍。这个结果并没考虑到本文介绍的产品类别规范(明星及黑洞产品)-- 这些规范会开始于第二季生效(明星产品将有更好的可得性表现)。这样一来将带来更高的利益。